Thứ Tư, 15 tháng 2, 2012

Capriles to Challenge Chávez in Venezuela

The challenger, who won a primary election held jointly on Sunday by a spectrum of opposition parties, is Henrique Capriles Radonski, the fresh-faced governor of Miranda, one of the country’s most populous states, which includes a large swath of Caracas, the capital. Mr. Capriles, a political moderate, will challenge Mr. Chávez in the general election scheduled for Oct. 7, which will inevitably be seen as a referendum on the socialist incumbent’s tenure of more than 13 years.

Speaking before thousands of supporters in Caracas on Sunday night, Mr. Capriles vowed to bring the country together.

“I aspire to be the president of all Venezuelans,” Mr. Capriles said. “The message is clear. Venezuelans are fed up with confrontation, with division.” He criticized Mr. Chávez’s policies but did not mention him by name.

Mr. Chávez has repeatedly dismissed his opponents as the craven remnants of an old order dominated by a small, often corrupt oligarchy, while casting himself as the champion of revolution and a remade society.

It is not clear whether Mr. Chávez, 57, can make that stick against Mr. Capriles, who is 39.

Yet even with a unified opposition behind him, Mr. Capriles faces the steepest of uphill climbs running against the agile Mr. Chávez, who still enjoys strong support from important constituencies, like the poor people who have seen their lives improve under his government, and the government and state-owned company employees who may feel that their jobs depend on Mr. Chávez remaining president.

Before the primary on Sunday, Mr. Chávez said he would give the opposition “the beating of the century” in the general election, and he predicted that he would win by 40 percentage points. Mr. Chavez was re-elected easily in 2006 with 63 percent of the vote, against a divided opposition that lacked fresh personalities.

Luis Vicente León, a political analyst and pollster, said that though this year’s election “is an unbalanced fight,” the opposition is at its strongest in years and an upset is possible. Though there is deep polarization in the country, Mr. León said, polls show that about one-third of the electorate is undecided about whom to support in October.

That group is known here as the Ni-Nis, meaning Neither-Nors, committed neither to Mr. Chávez nor to the opposition. For Mr. Capriles to win, he must persuade these voters that he can improve their lives, not simply urge them to cast a vote against Mr. Chávez, Mr. León said.

The primary on Sunday was the first time that a group of different parties in Venezuela have asked voters to choose a unity candidate for them to back.

Officials said more than 2.9 million voters had taken part in the primary, with 95 percent of the vote counted, a larger turnout than many had expected. The high turnout could spell trouble for Mr. Chávez because it suggests that the opposition is energized and well organized. Mr. Capriles received more than 1.8 million votes, more than double the next closest finisher.

Though the opposition is more united than in the past, the charismatic Mr. Chávez still has vast advantages over any opponent, including control of an enormous pot of money from the state-run oil industry, social programs that pour money into poor neighborhoods and a ubiquitous propaganda machine that turns almost every government program into an advertisement for the president. Mr. Chávez and his supporters enjoy a nonstop presence on state television.

Mr. Chávez remains a larger-than-life figure here despite a fight with cancer and lingering questions about his health. He is a master showman with keen political instincts, presenting the world in stark us-versus-them colors and delighting in taunting his enemies.

In contrast, Mr. Capriles has sought so far not to lock horns with Mr. Chávez, saying the country is tired of the president’s bellicose talk and is ready for someone who can bring people together. He emphasizes his record as an administrator during his tenure as governor and, before that, as mayor of a section of Caracas.

María Eugenia Díaz contributed reporting.


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